Are pharma pipelines sustainable?

Prediction of output from pharma development pipelines is currently very much influenced by analytical methods applied by financial analysts. None of these are based on a thorough performance analysis.

The method described here is useful for rolling forecasts of pipeline output and uses as input the number of projects on new drug substances, the average world class or company specific cycle times and the attrition rates, again, either world class, or company specific.

Depending on the the size of the enterprise, even indication specific clusters may be formed.

The approach presented may be extremely helpful also in merger or acquisition activities and evaluation.