Scenario Techniques (ICI-22)

Scenario Planning, Networked Thinking

”Networked Thinking” has proven itself to have great value as an efficient analysis method, able to accomodate complex, unstable market- and competitive developments. It examines the inter-dependencies of all relevant market factors and categorizes them according to importance, active influence and passive interference. This, produces a coherent, complete, understandable and communicable “business model” which can serve as a basis for strategy development, scenario development, early warning or business war gaming. Scenario techniques play a central and fundamental role among the methods of competitive analysis.

Workshop focus

Overview of long-term prognoses

• Overview of long-term prognoses methods
• Expert-based methods for
• Data acquisition
• Examination of analogies
• Estimating the potential
• Areas of application

Scenario technique:
Developing competing future perspectives

• Identification of factors which influ­ence the future market environment (for this, different  methods of approach will be consid­ered)
• Selection of key factors from a pool of influ­encing factors (determining relevance)
• Formation of scenarios through the bundling of key factors
• Selection and preparation of relevant goal sce­narios
• Deduction of implications of the scenarios for the question of outcome (e.g. compilation of  prognoses
• Overview of software for scenario techniques

Competitor prognoses through multi-parameter models (War Gaming)

• Basics of networked thinking
• System dynamic analysis
• Overview of commercial simulation software
• Realization of simulation projects
• Modelling of competitive situations
• Case study: strategy development  with a War Gaming simulator

Readings

• The Art of the Long View (by Peter Schwartz)
• Learning from the Future (by Liam Fahey and Robert M. Randall)

Articles

• Competitor Scenarios: Projecting a Rival‘s Marketplace Strategy (by Liam Fahey, 1999)

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