(ICI-23) Decision, Risk and Bayes' Analysis

In order to make ideal decisions, you have to be able to quan­tify the effects of your decisions and your goal criteria!

Among the many tasks of CI analysts and managers is support of decision-making and active involvement in strategic and operative processes. Good decisions are based on the realistic assessment of uncertainties and risks, the identification of one’s own alternatives and ascertaining the effects on one’s own company. For the solution of complex decision tasks, with numerous, reciprocally influencing decision parameters and non-deterministic consequences, the structured approach of “decision and risk analysis” is of high value in practical experience.

Forecast on further methods and final discussion

Workshop foci

• Fundamentals of risk- and decision modelling

• Introduction into the fundamentals of probability theory and statistics

• Case study 1: Risk analysis of a product introduction

• Case study 2: Investment decision with and without intelligence

• Forecast on further methods and final discussion

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