Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation: An Empirical Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries
Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation: An Empirical Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries

Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation: An Empirical Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries

Beitrag, Englisch, John Wiley & Sons, Inc

Autor: Prof. Dr. Ansgar Belke

Herausgeber / Co-Autor: Klose, Jens

Erscheinungsdatum: 2017

Quelle: Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 55 (6)

Seitenangabe: 1221-1238


Aufrufe gesamt: 2, letzte 30 Tage: 1

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Is secular stagnation – a period of persistently lower growth such as that seen following the financial crisis of 2008–09 – a valid concern for euro-area countries? We tackle this question using the well-established Laubach-Williams model to estimate the unobservable equilibrium real interest rate and compare it to the actual real rate. In light of the considerable increase in heterogeneity among EU member countries since the beginning of the financial crisis, we apply our approach to 12 euro-area countries to provide country-level answers to the question of secular stagnation. The presence of secular stagnation in a number of euro-area countries has important implications for ECB decision-making (such as, voting power in the Governing Council) and EU governance. Our results indicate that secular stagnation is not a significant threat to most euro-area countries, with one possible exception: Greece.

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Länderthemen

Prof. Dr. Ansgar Belke

DE, Essen

Inhaber des Jean-Monnet Lehrstuhls VWL, insbes. Makroökonomik an der Universität Duisburg-Essen

ECB-Observer

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