Establishment and Operation of Early Warning Systems ICI-32

Establishment and operation of early warning systems 

Early warning is the timely identification of potential risks for a business. Early warning constitutes the subsequent assessment of this threat. The application of these functions in a continuous process is referred to as an early warning system. The Intelligence fundamentals for the design of early detection and warning systems will be shown in this workshop and their implementation in a business described. With a case study, the attendees will develop a specific action plan and build a complete early warning system for a company.

Workshop focus

Theory of weak signals

• Ansoff approach to early warning
• Analogies from military early warning
• Technological early detection
• Early warning and risk management

Identification and applicability of early warning indicators

• Methods to identify indicators
• Calculation of the applicability of an indicator, specificity and sensitivity

Design of early warning systems

• Design, cost-benefit optimization, IT-support
• Steps of implementation
• Operation and continued performance re­views

Sensors

• Primary and secondary sensors
• From Business Intelligence to early warning
• Management of an early warning system

Case study

• Preparation of an early warning system with a specific example

Readings

• Seeing What's Next (by Clayton M. Christensen, Erik A. Roth and Scott D. Anthony)

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