Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (ICI-26)

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (ICI-26)
Techniques to avoid mistakes with information collection, -analysis, -reporting and decision making

Information for CI analysis comes from multiple sources that have different references and come in many forms of media, closeness, and familiarity to the analyst. Credibility, time sequence, and relevance of the information is difficult to determine directly and changes constantly during the course of the research. Furthermore, conflicting information as well as misinformation is part of the everyday work of a CI analyst. To be able to generate high quality results, despite these potential cognitive perception mistakes and biases, the CI analyst has to be able to reliably use preventive tools and techniques for avoiding mistakes.
If the CI analyst doesn’t arrange for precautionary measures, an opportunistic information analysis will result.
In this workshop, pragmatic strategies to prevent typical Intelligence analysis mistakes will be described and tested with numerous examples by the attendees in the exercises.







Workshop focus

• Perceptional mistakes with information processing and analysis
  Expectation versus wishful thinking
  Dominance of mindsets
  Dynamics of information perception
  Preconception
• Cognitive biases with data analysis Mistakes with the assessment of evidence
  Mistakes with the perception of cause and ef­fect
  Mistakes with the estimation of probabilities
  Blind spots
• Mistakes with Intelligence reporting
  Deliberate and unconscious manipulation of results
  Basic principles of reporting
• Typical decision making mistakes
  Why even intelligent people can make blatant and wrong decisions
  Lessons learned from completed CI projects (feedback and perfor­mance measurement)
  Deliberate and unconscious manipulation of results
  Basic principles of reporting
• Methods to avoid typical Intelligence mistakes Analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)
  Mental tool kits
  Check lists